Population Growth, Urbanization, and a Changing Climate

Thesis: As the population increases so too does urbanization. The concentration of bodies, buildings, pavement, cars, and emissions is an underappreciated driver of climate change. We will look at the net impact of these factors as the global population and urban (and suburban) areas grow and we will examine which drivers should be prioritized to minimize warming.

What are anthropogenic warming drivers and their rank of importance? Our tentative ranking:

• Solar mag flux on iron/steel. Bringing iron ore to the surface and converting it to iron and steel.
• Albedo reductions from soot - perhaps somewhat equally distributed except near soot emitters - with the most pronounced impacts where it falls on lighter surfaces such as snow and ice, concrete, deserts, beaches, white roofs, etc. More impact in N Hemisphere due to more population and sources of soot and more land area. Relatedly - can it alone explain reductions in land and sea ice thickness and extent and temp rise?
• Orbital considerations - all the Milankovitch parameters such as planetary position, orbital plane, Earth axis tilt and wobble. Treated as a group? (Medium now, top of list long term - but only medium if the Holocene is not scheduled to end - I can’t tell but it seems we could be close.)
• Greenhouse impacts from windows and enclosed structures - in greenhouses (commercial, research, personal gardens), cars, trucks, trains, ships, aircraft (e.g., "close blinds when exiting the aircraft") and buildings. As part of this or related is the removal of this internal heat to the surrounding air, where it raises the outside temperature - even in rural areas. For example, the square miles of junked cars and of trucks and buses with closed windows closed to protect salvageable interior parts. These are on the outskirts of all population centers. On a hot day, my attic temp drops 35 deg when I turn on the ventilator. Where does this heat go?
• Albedo reductions from infrastructure such as dark roads, parking lots, airports, and buildings with dark roofs and sides - for example, hot attics and asphalt.
• Albedo reductions from agriculture as relatively barren land is converted to crops, most of which are a dark color, such as corn and potatoes and squash.
• CO2 and other greenhouse gases (Methane separate).
• Albedo reductions from construction of dams and subsequent irrigation that turn vast areas of reflective desert into vegetated (agriculture and forestry) and urban heat absorbing and generating sources.
• Electrical power transmission lines - resistive heat (as in a toaster).
• Fuel combustion (motors, heating). Perhaps data are obtainable with just the raw heat value of crude oil, gas, wind, PV panels, etc. - check to be sure this captures energy conversion in homes, buildings, agriculture, transport, etc. Essentially includes energy use in the communities and by humans in general.
• Human and food animals and pets’ body heat. Consider population explosion at 100 watts per person (figure from JTE 1965 ThermoDynamics class).
• Water vapor/aerosols - natural from temp increase and smokestack scrubbers, agriculture watering sprays and plants, human and animal breath.
• Methane from cattle and thawing tundra and other sources.
• Wind power - converting wind energy to electricity - almost all of which generates heat (conjecture).
• PV power generation - converting solar energy to electricity - almost all of which generates heat in transmission and in use. Also most panels absorb heat rather than reflect it (conjecture).
  
  

Approach: No details available yet. Project under development.

 

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